JAPAN'S BIRTH RATE ABOUT TO DROP IN YEAR OF THE FIRE HORSE

Happy Oriental New Year!

Except it's not, because this year is the year of the dreaded "Fire Horse," a year in which any East Asian woman (Chinese, Japanese, or Korean) with even a little superstition is unlikely to reproduce. 

You see, it's all down to the traditional Chinese Zodiac, which is very much part of Japanese culture too. This is full of superstitions about lucky or unlucky years, months, and days; and this year, the Year of the Fire Horse (Hinoe-Uma in Japanese), is simply considered one of worst years to have children.

As there are twelve animal-years in the Chinese Zodiac, there is a Horse Year every 12 years, but each time it is paired with one of the five elements (wood, fire, earth, metal, water), so you get a "Fire Horse" year every 60 years. 

But just look at what happened during the last one in 1966 — birth rates (measured as fertility rate or "kids per woman") plunged from 2.14 in 1965 to 1.58! Remember, 2 kids per woman, or slightly over, is considered the replacement rate.

Why was that? 

Quite simply because, according to the superstitions of the East Asian Zodiac, baby girls born in this year are expected to grow up into headstrong women and thus make terrible wives, bringing shame on their families several decades later.

In order to avoid such an ill-omened outcome, many Japanese couples will timidly skip having a baby.

Yes, really!

In 1965 there were 1,823,697 live births. In 1966 that number fell to 1,356,400 live births, a decrease of almost half a million, or half a million people who simply weren't born because of what seems like a childish superstition. Mind-blowing!