TAKAICHI'S BID FOR LEADERSHIP IN TATTERS AS OPPOSITION PARTIES GANG UP

And just like that, this guy could be Japan's next PM!

Just days after being unexpectedly elected leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Sanae Takaichi's bid to become the first female Prime Minister of Japan is in tatters following the decision of coalition partners  Kōmeitō to break with the LDP.

Kōmeitō (24 MPs) decided to dissolve the coalition with the LDP (196 MPs) over concerns about Takaichi's "ultranationalism" and connivance with corruption. In a fresh blow, the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), which has 27 MPs, appears no longer willing to hold coalition talks with the LDP.

This means that it is now increasingly difficult for Takaichi to stitch together the 233 votes needed to confirm Takaichi as Prime Minister. Meanwhile the possibility of a rival candidate is growing. 

Reports are that the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) is now seeking to team up with Kōmeitō and the DPP to form a coalition, possibly with support from the Osaka-based party Ishin. The CDP has 148 seats. With Kōmeitō, the DPP, and Ishi on board this would give them just over the 233 votes needed to vote in a rival government to Takaichi's LDP. It looks like that in such a case they could also count on the support of the Japanese Communist Party and its 8 MPs.

In some ways, this would a preferable situation for Takaichi, whose skills are better suited to being a tough-talking opposition leader than managing a weak and fractious governing coalition with her insincere smile. Any coalition that is formed without the LDP is sure to be ineffective in government and lose popularity, thus strengthening Takaichi's hand for a later run at government.

The best path forward for the opposition parties would be to force an election in which they would probably score over the LDP and thus increase their share of MPs, giving them the chance of forming a stabler coalition.

If the opposition get enough votes to put in an alternative Prime Minister to Takaichi, it appears that it would probably be DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki (see above), who has been backed by CDP Secretary-General Jun Azumi as a figurehead.